Scenario & Uncertainty Analysis
Quantitative risk analysis frameworks for stress testing, scenario planning, and Monte Carlo simulations. Essential for boards, risk committees, and executives who need to understand the range of outcomes before making critical decisions.
Multi-variable impact analysis with tornado charts
Best for: Understanding key drivers of value or returns
Named scenarios with probability weighting
Best for: Board presentations and strategic planning
Probabilistic modeling with thousands of iterations
Best for: Quantifying uncertainty and probability of outcomes
Extreme scenario impact analysis
Best for: Regulatory compliance and risk appetite setting
Statistical risk quantification
Best for: Treasury and portfolio risk management
Threshold analysis for key variables
Best for: Quick risk assessment and margin of safety
One and two-way sensitivity tables
Best for: Exploring parameter combinations
Structured risk identification and tracking
Best for: Enterprise risk management and governance
| Model | Situation | Key Benefit |
|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity Analysis | Identifying key value drivers | Clear ranking of variable importance |
| Scenario Analysis | Board or investment committee presentation | Named, understandable outcome ranges |
| Monte Carlo | Quantifying probability of outcomes | Full distribution of possible results |
| Stress Testing | Regulatory or risk committee requirements | Extreme event impact quantification |
| Break-Even | Quick feasibility assessment | Immediate go/no-go guidance |